EBRD upgrades Egypt’s real GDP growth for 2023 to 6%
The European bank for reconstruction and deveopment (EBRD) said that Economic growth in the first half of fiscal year2021/22 (July – December 2021) in Egypt averaged 9.0 per cent year-on-year, driven by improvements in tourism, manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail trade, and agriculture.
The recovery is expected to continueand growth is projected to reach 5.7 per cent GDP growth in fiscal year 2021/22 and 5.0 per cent infiscal year 2022/23, although rising prices forwheat, food products and petroleum due to thewar on Ukraine will have an impact.
Egypt is a net oil importer and one of the world’s biggest wheat importers, and it depends on imports for other food products as well, all of which are likely to face elevated prices in the short and medium term.
On the upside, higher demand and pricesfor Egypt’s gas exports could sustain growth in themedium term, and the IMF-supported programme could support reform implementation and investor confidence.
The latter could also help manage external imbalances, as might recent EGP devaluation.
Downside risks to economic performance include the volatility in global energyand food prices and the possibility that a falteringglobal recovery spills over into key sectors andsupply chains.
On a calendar year basis, growth is forecast to slow down to 3.1 per cent in 2022, from 7.2 per cent in 2021, before picking up to 6.0 per cent in 2023.
